Long-term forecasts on global air transport development

For the air transport sector, statements on the future development are required for various purposes. For this reason, aircraft manufacturers and ICAO regularly publish forecasts which are the basis for estimation of aircraft or component requirements for the forthcoming 20 years. Studies on the future development are also essential for strategic planning of the air traffic infrastructure (airports and air traffic control) and also the quantification of potential environment impacts induced by air transport. On this side some selected, recently published forecasts of worldwide air traffic are presented in order to give an impression of the potential overall air transport development.

In 2013, long-term forecasts were published by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) as well as the forecasts from the aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing. Metadata descriptions of Airbus' Global Market Forecast and of Boeing's Current Market Outlook are given in the MONITOR-Database.

Source: Boeing, Airbus, ICAO
Figure: Comparison of current air transport forecasts on global scale

The great similarity in the expected PKM trends is noticeable when comparing the forecasts. Starting from a comparable basis of 4,800 billion PKM in 2010, the average annual growth through to 2030 varies by 0.5% between Boeing and ICAO. While ICAO assumes an average annual growth of 4.5% throughout the given period, Airbus expects 4.8% and Boeing 5.0%. The assumed developments lead to 11.7 billion PKM worldwide in the ICAO forecast, 12.1 billion PKM in the Airbus and 12.8 billion PKM in the Boeing forecast for the target year.

In addition metadata information can be found for the following forecast studies in the MONITOR database: